New research from the Columbia Aging Center shows how automation affects workers health and mortality

Friday, October 1, 2021

The Changing Occupation Landscape: How Automation Affects Workers Health and Mortality

September 29, 2021-- A study on how structural economic risk at the occupational level is linked to long-term health outcomes of employees found that individuals in occupations characterized by high routine intensity are likely to become unemployed in the long term and have higher rates of disability and mortality, according to researchers at the Robert N. Butler Columbia Aging Centerbased at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health. Until now, there has been a lack of large-scale population level analyses focusing on how one’s job is affected by technology- induced displacement and its health and social effects.  The findings are published online in the BMJ journal Occupational and Environmental Medicine.

The researchers categorized all Norwegian employees in 2003 aged 33-52 in 335 occupations using the Routine Task Intensity (RTI) index, a weighted sum of selected job characteristics based on an occupation’s routine cognitive or physical tasks that can potentially be automated or outsourced. The sample was composed of 416,003 men and 376,413 women.

“Because we can follow the earnings and social security history of these workers for 15 years, through 2018, we limited the data extract to those aged 33-52 in 2003 -- wage earners in their prime earnings age-- and observed employment and disability status in 2018 and mortality status in 2019,” noted Vegard Skirbekk, PhD, professor of population and family health at Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, and senior author. “The key findings are robust to controlling for other factors, such as educational attainment, and persist when we compared siblings working in jobs with different levels of routine intensity. “

A second Index -- the Frey-Osborne Index -- was also used to more narrowly reflect the probability that expected advances in machine-learning techniques would make it possible to automate the tasks involved in different occupations over the coming decades.

Working in an occupation with an RTI score slightly above the mean in 2003, was associated with a raised probability of being deceased in 2019, corresponding to raised mortality rates of 6.7 percent for men and 5.5 percent for women.

“Our finding matched earlier research that found declining employment in occupations with higher RTI scores,” observed Skirbekk. “While the projected impact of technological changes on labor markets varies across studies, many expect these economic changes to continue or even accelerate and encompass larger shares of the economy.”

According to Skirbekk there are several reasons why technology-induced job loss can relate to health outcomes. Holding an occupation that is being phased out over time increases the risk of employment loss and makes re-employment harder since job openings within the same occupation will tend to become scarce. Having a job where one has a higher risk of being laid off can cause stress and greater risk of anxiety and depression.

“This unique study underscores that we should pay more attention to the types of job people hold – which can have negative implications for their job prospects, health and lifespan. In the face of widespread automation, such effects could well increase in importance in the years ahead,” said Skirbekk. “Governments need to consider individuals holding jobs that are at risk, assess opportunities for retraining and reeducation, give counselling, provide economic support, offer preventive healthcare services and pay more attention to these groups of individuals as a whole.”


Co-authors are Ole Rogeberg and Bernt Bratsberg, University of Oslo.

The research was supported by the Research Council of Norway.

The Robert N. Butler Columbia Aging Center

Bringing together the campus-wide resources of a top-tier research university, the Robert N. Butler Columbia Aging Center approach to aging science is an innovative, multidisciplinary one with an eye to practical and policy implications.  Its mission is to add to the knowledge base needed to better understand the aging process and the societal implications of our increased potential for living longer lives. For more information about this center which is based at the Columbia Mailman School of Public Health, please visit:

Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health

Founded in 1922, the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health pursues an agenda of research, education, and service to address the critical and complex public health issues affecting New Yorkers, the nation and the world. The Columbia Mailman School is the seventh largest recipient of NIH grants among schools of public health. Its nearly 300 multi-disciplinary faculty members work in more than 100 countries around the world, addressing such issues as preventing infectious and chronic diseases, environmental health, maternal and child health, health policy, climate change and health, and public health preparedness. It is a leader in public health education with more than 1,300 graduate students from 55 nations pursuing a variety of master’s and doctoral degree programs. The Columbia Mailman School is also home to numerous world-renowned research centers, including ICAP and the Center for Infection and Immunity. For more information, please visit

Contact: Stephanie Berger, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, [email protected], 917.734.8973